Tropical Storm Erika Weakens
As of 2 pm EDT, Tropical Storm Erika was located approximately 160 miles West of Guadeloupe. Erika had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. Erika was moving to the West at 14 mph, this movement should gradually change to a West-Northwest motion in the next 12-24 hours.
The latest fix from the Hurricane Hunters has Erika approximately 50 miles from the fix at 11 am and to the West-Southwest of that location. This movement or relocation of the center can have major impacts on the future path and strength of Erika. They call for a Westward movement but it seems a little South of due West
Computer models from this morning were not initializing the center of the storm in its current location, therefore we should see a shift of the models to the west. This would put Florida back into the bullseye and even open the possiblity of a entrance into the Gulf of Mexico. One major difference would be the influence of land. Yesterday the models were showing Erika going north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, now they may shift to a path where Erika will go over them.
I'm thinking since Erika can't get her low-level circulation to line up with the mid-level circulation she will remain weak and make a more westward path across the Northern Caribbean. This will result in the storm making it into the Southern Gulf of Mexico before it moves out, if it can be pulled out by a trough. Everything will depend on strength, speed, and location of the trough and ridge. I'm not ruling out a run into the Bahamas but it is looking less likely, unless Erika makes a sharp turn to the Northwest. I think the models will shift more West later today and tomorrow and should show Erika either interacting with Southern Hispaniola or Jamaica.
This is just my opinion, everyone should listen to any local government information and follow any watches or warnings issued. Please refer to the NHC website or local news station for up to date information.
The next official update for the track and strength of Erika will be at 5 pm EDT.
Tropical Storm Erika
2:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27
Location: 16.5°N 63.8°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion
000
WTNT45 KNHC 271457
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015
Erika is not well organized at this time. Although deep convection
increased overnight and early today during the diurnal maximum,
with considerable lightning activity, banding features were
lacking. The convection is also not well organized on the
Guadeloupe radar imagery. Recent high-resolution visible imagery
shows the low-level center becoming exposed, again, to the
northwest of the main area of thunderstorms. Data from the aircraft
do not indicate any strengthening, and the initial intensity is kept
at 45 kt.
The latest aircraft fixes show that the center has apparently
reformed farther to the south of previous estimates. With some
adjustments to the previous location, the initial motion estimate is
kept at 270/14. For the next few days, Erika should move
west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge.
Later in the forecast period, as the tropical cyclone nears the
western periphery of the ridge, a turn to the northwest and
north-northwest should occur. However there is uncertainty as to
how soon and how sharp this turn will take place. The future track
of Erika is also dependent on its intensity, with a weaker system
likely to move more to the west and a stronger cyclone more to the
east. There is substantial spread in the track models at days 3 to
5, partially due to differences in model-predicted intensity. The
official track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous
one mainly due to the adjustment in the current center position.
This is close to the model consensus.
As expected, Erika is being disrupted by an unfavorable atmospheric
environment, and this disruption is expected to continue for the
next couple of days. No significant strengthening is expected until
later in the forecast period. In addition, with the reformation of
the center to the south of the previous track, the likelihood of
interaction with the land mass of Hispaniola has increased. This
has implications for Hispaniola, of course, but also for the track
and intensity of Erika after that. In short, potential impacts for
the Bahamas and beyond are unusually uncertain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 18.8N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 20.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 23.9N 77.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 26.5N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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