Erika Continues West

Tropical Storm Erika Continues West

As of 2pm EST Tropical Storm Erika was located approximately 305 miles Southeast of Great Inagua Island. Erika had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph a minimum central pressure of 1009 mb and was moving West at 18 mph. Despite forecasts of Erika making a more West-Northwest turn the storm continues to the West. 

So far the forecast models haven't been too accurate on the path of Erika. I think this is because of the poor structure of Erika and that the models haven't been initializing the location correctly. Right now the models are showing Erika going over Hispaniola, through the Bahamas, and going through the Florida Keys then making landfall on the Western tip of Florida. Intensity models have back off on making Erika a Hurricane before landfall as well. 

Like I said yesterday as long as Erika remains week and poorly structured the storm will continue on a more Westward path. I'm sticking with my forecast from yesterday of Erika continuing West then making a turn toward the West-Northwest which will eventually lead Erika into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. SSTs are very high in the Gulf, if Erika can make it to the Gulf the storm may explode with intensity. 

This is just my opinion and shouldn't be taken as any official correspondence or used to make decisions. Please refer to any local government and the NHC for official guidance and information. 

Tropical Storm Erika

2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 70.2°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion

---

000
WTNT45 KNHC 281452
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

Morning visible imagery shows that the broad low-level center of
Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to the
effects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of
40-45 kt surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer and 850 mb flight-level winds as high as 55 kt,
so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  The central pressure based
on the aircraft reports is 1008 mb.

Now that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion
is a somewhat more confident 285/16.  A generally west-northwestward
motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around
the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that
time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward
speed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance
continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of
Erika.  The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and
GFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope.  On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker
storm and lies on the left side of the envelope.  An extra
complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt
the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform
somewhere northwest or west of the island.  Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through
96 hours.  The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than
six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the
previous track.

Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to
continue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours.  This,
combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should
weaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a
tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola.  Assuming the cyclone
survives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which
could allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall
on the Florida Peninsula.  The new intensity forecast is an update
of the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low
confidence.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and
mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 17.7N  69.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 19.3N  71.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1200Z 20.8N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  30/0000Z 22.3N  77.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 23.5N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 26.0N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/1200Z 30.5N  82.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven