Erika Continues West

Tropical Storm Erika Continues West

As of 2pm EST Tropical Storm Erika was located approximately 305 miles Southeast of Great Inagua Island. Erika had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph a minimum central pressure of 1009 mb and was moving West at 18 mph. Despite forecasts of Erika making a more West-Northwest turn the storm continues to the West. 

So far the forecast models haven't been too accurate on the path of Erika. I think this is because of the poor structure of Erika and that the models haven't been initializing the location correctly. Right now the models are showing Erika going over Hispaniola, through the Bahamas, and going through the Florida Keys then making landfall on the Western tip of Florida. Intensity models have back off on making Erika a Hurricane before landfall as well. 

Like I said yesterday as long as Erika remains week and poorly structured the storm will continue on a more Westward path. I'm sticking with my forecast from yesterday of Erika continuing West then making a turn toward the West-Northwest which will eventually lead Erika into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. SSTs are very high in the Gulf, if Erika can make it to the Gulf the storm may explode with intensity. 

This is just my opinion and shouldn't be taken as any official correspondence or used to make decisions. Please refer to any local government and the NHC for official guidance and information. 

Tropical Storm Erika

2:00 PM AST Fri Aug 28
Location: 17.7°N 70.2°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion

---

000
WTNT45 KNHC 281452
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

Morning visible imagery shows that the broad low-level center of
Erika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to the
effects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear.  An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of
40-45 kt surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer and 850 mb flight-level winds as high as 55 kt,
so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  The central pressure based
on the aircraft reports is 1008 mb.

Now that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion
is a somewhat more confident 285/16.  A generally west-northwestward
motion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around
the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that
time, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward
speed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance
continues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of
Erika.  The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and
GFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope.  On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker
storm and lies on the left side of the envelope.  An extra
complication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt
the circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform
somewhere northwest or west of the island.  Overall, the guidance
envelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous
advisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through
96 hours.  The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than
six hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the
previous track.

Westerly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to
continue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours.  This,
combined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should
weaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a
tropical wave while crossing Hispaniola.  Assuming the cyclone
survives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which
could allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall
on the Florida Peninsula.  The new intensity forecast is an update
of the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low
confidence.

The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be
very heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and
Haiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and
mud slides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/1500Z 17.7N  69.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/0000Z 19.3N  71.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/1200Z 20.8N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  30/0000Z 22.3N  77.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  30/1200Z 23.5N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  31/1200Z 26.0N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
120H  02/1200Z 30.5N  82.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Erika Weakens

Tropical Storm Erika Weakens

As of 2 pm EDT, Tropical Storm Erika was located approximately 160 miles West of Guadeloupe. Erika had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. Erika was moving to the West at 14 mph, this movement should gradually change to a West-Northwest motion in the next 12-24 hours.

The latest fix from the Hurricane Hunters has Erika approximately 50 miles from the fix at 11 am and to the West-Southwest of that location. This movement or relocation of the center can have major impacts on the future path and strength of Erika. They call for a Westward movement but it seems a little South of due West

Computer models from this morning were not initializing the center of the storm in its current location, therefore we should see a shift of the models to the west. This would put Florida back into the bullseye and even open the possiblity of a entrance into the Gulf of Mexico. One major difference would be the influence of land. Yesterday the models were showing Erika going north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, now they may shift to a path where Erika will go over them. 

I'm thinking since Erika can't get her low-level circulation to line up with the mid-level circulation she will remain weak and make a more westward path across the Northern Caribbean. This will result in the storm making it into the Southern Gulf of Mexico before it moves out, if it can be pulled out by a trough. Everything will depend on strength, speed, and location of the trough and ridge. I'm not ruling out a run into the Bahamas but it is looking less likely, unless Erika makes a sharp turn to the Northwest. I think the models will shift more West later today and tomorrow and should show Erika either interacting with Southern Hispaniola or Jamaica. 

This is just my opinion, everyone should listen to any local government information and follow any watches or warnings issued. Please refer to the NHC website or local news station for up to date information.

The next official update for the track and strength of Erika will be at 5 pm EDT.

Tropical Storm Erika

2:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27
Location: 16.5°N 63.8°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion 000 WTNT45 KNHC 271457 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015 Erika is not well organized at this time. Although deep convection increased overnight and early today during the diurnal maximum, with considerable lightning activity, banding features were lacking. The convection is also not well organized on the Guadeloupe radar imagery. Recent high-resolution visible imagery shows the low-level center becoming exposed, again, to the northwest of the main area of thunderstorms. Data from the aircraft do not indicate any strengthening, and the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt. The latest aircraft fixes show that the center has apparently reformed farther to the south of previous estimates. With some adjustments to the previous location, the initial motion estimate is kept at 270/14. For the next few days, Erika should move west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, as the tropical cyclone nears the western periphery of the ridge, a turn to the northwest and north-northwest should occur. However there is uncertainty as to how soon and how sharp this turn will take place. The future track of Erika is also dependent on its intensity, with a weaker system likely to move more to the west and a stronger cyclone more to the east. There is substantial spread in the track models at days 3 to 5, partially due to differences in model-predicted intensity. The official track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous one mainly due to the adjustment in the current center position. This is close to the model consensus. As expected, Erika is being disrupted by an unfavorable atmospheric environment, and this disruption is expected to continue for the next couple of days. No significant strengthening is expected until later in the forecast period. In addition, with the reformation of the center to the south of the previous track, the likelihood of interaction with the land mass of Hispaniola has increased. This has implications for Hispaniola, of course, but also for the track and intensity of Erika after that. In short, potential impacts for the Bahamas and beyond are unusually uncertain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.4N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.8N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.0N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.4N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 23.9N 77.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 26.5N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 28.5N 80.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch